On Elections and a Constitutional Crisis

“Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression & World War II”
The Fourth Turning, Levi Strauss & Neil Howe (1997)

I first came across the book The Fourth Turning around 2010 or 2011. I remember reading it for the first time and being enthralled with the generational cycles and the potential roadmap that it outlined for the coming years. Little did I realize how accurate it would be.

The book tells of the US entering The Fourth Turning around the year 2005 (or so). It turns out that the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis was the catalyst that kicked off this cycle. We've never really recovered - or rather - it started a series of events that we are still feeling the repercussions from - and will for quite some time.

As we head into 2024 and an election year - I can't help but wonder if this will mark the beginning of the crisis period of The Fourth Turning. Looking ahead at the November Election - this is my prediction:

With so many shenanigans happening with the candidates (Trump being kicked off the Ballot in Maine, Republican States threatening to retaliate by kicking Biden off Ballot, RFK running as an Independent, other candidates lurking (Cornel West, Joe Manchin, etc.) - I don't think ANY candidate will reach the required 270 delegates - thus kicking the decision to The House. At this time, the Republicans control the House (barely) and will create further infighting amongst them and the Democrats will dig in their heels against any conservative candidate - the inability to come to a decision will result in a Constitutional Crisis that I'm not sure we'll be able to get thru as a nation. We might not make it thru to the other side.

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