January 9, 2024•351 words
Coming up on the two year anniversary of the Russia / Ukraine war. The news and updates have already become rote and uninteresting. The American people have moved on and are not interested in what is happening in Ukraine anymore. The news cycle is looking for the new new thing and it temporarily found it with the Israel - Hamas war. But even that has gotten old.
In both cases its tragic - for everyone. Death comes when one is provoked. And without exception - all four parties in the two wars provoked each other.
After two years of death - where does that leave us?
Instead of breaking the back of Russia, it appears that Russia has grown stronger as a garrison state as well in its sphere of influence. While their money is devalued - their overall economy is sound - far sounder than anyone in the West predicted.
What have we learned?
We've learned that sanctions don't work. Specifically, sanctions from the US do not work against a sovereign nation like Russia that is rich in minerals and natural resources - not to mention land and people.
We've learned that Russia opposes the US as a unipolar power and is gaining global support to counter the US hegemony.
We've learned that China is neutral and just as devious as Russia - more than willing to watch both giants fight and learn from our mistakes.
We've learned that while the US is technologically more advanced - that those advantages do not serve us as well in a conventional war on the other side of the world.
We've learned that the US will lean hard on Ukraine to sustain its unipolar status.
We've learned that something has to give.
Either Russia will break (it won't) or the US needs to give up its unipolar status (it won't).
So what will these giants do when they are backed into a corner?
Nation states only act in their own interest and if the threat is existential to their power - then anything and everything is on the table - including desperation.